Monday, December 27, 2010

NBA Eastern Conference after 2 Months

We are now two months into the NBA season, and things in the Eastern Conference are starting to take shape.  There are 4-5 teams clearly separating themselves from the rest of the pack, and really there are only 2 teams that I think are serious contenders for the championship.  Here are the current NBA Eastern Conference standings:

1. Boston Celtics (23-5)
2. Miami Heat (23-9)
3. Chicago Bulls (19-10)
4. New York Knicks (18-12)
5. Orlando Magic (18-12)
6. Atlanta Hawks (19-13)
7. Indiana Pacers (13-15)
8. Milwaukee Bucks (12-16)
9. Philadelphia 76ers (12-18)
10. Toronto Raptors (10-19)
11. Detroit Pistons (10-20)
12. Charlotte Bobcats (9-19)
13. New Jersey Nets (9-21)
14. Cleveland Cavaliers (8-22)
15. Washington Wizards (7-21)

Obviously only the top eight teams make the playoffs, and right now things are shaping up like many of the experts thought they would.  Its pretty clear who the best teams in the conference are, so let's take a look at each of the teams who might be contenders to make the NBA Finals this season.

1. Boston Celtics: I think they are easily the most complete team in the NBA.  I know they have some questionable losses (Toronto and Cleveland), but those were near the beginning of the season.  The Celts have unbelievable depth in the front court with Garnett, Shaq, Big Baby Davis, Jermaine O'Neal, Kendrick Perkins (when he comes back from injury), and Semih Erden.  That is just their front court.  They also have a great rotation of guards, and three all stars in their starting back court (Rondo, Pierce, Allen).  They do everything well on the offensive end, and are the best defensive team in the league.  Clearly they have the best chance of representing the Eastern Conference in the Finals. 

2. Miami Heat: The Heat seem to have figured out how to use their "Big Three" effectively.  LeBron James continues to play at an MVP level, Wade has rebounded very strongly from a terrible start to the season, and Chris Bosh has shown that he can be a really good third wheel.  However, the Heat still struggle in the post.  They are near the bottom of the league in points in the paint, but it doesn't really matter because they are very good in transition, and they spread the floor with good shooters as well.  Mike Miller coming back from injury will only help them, and give them another shooter to spread the floor for LeBron and Wade.  They aren't as complete a team as the Celtics, but they have an all-star cast, and should be capable of competing with the Celtics in the Eastern Conference.

3. Chicago Bulls: The Bulls have had bad luck with injuries this season.  Boozer missed the first fifteen games of the season, during which the Bulls were 9-6.  When Boozer came back the Bulls went on a stretch where they went 7-2, including wins over the Thunder and Lakers.  Then, just at the end of a seven game win streak, Joakim Noah goes down for at least 8 weeks, and they have to figure everything out all over again.  They should be alright without Noah in the meantime, especially since they are in the weakest portion of their schedule.  Derrick Rose is having an unbelievable season, and Carlos Boozer has been better than advertised since his return.  When they get Noah back, and if they can trade for a bonafide starting shooting guard, the Bulls can compete with anybody.  The problem is that they are young, and don't have much experience when it comes to winning a long series. 

4. New York Knicks: The Knicks have been a surprise.  Amar'e Stoudemire is playing the best basketball of his career, and Raymond Felton has given them a spark as well.  They are running the D'Antoni offense perfectly, and they can spread the floor with fantastic three point shooters (Gallinari, Fields, Chandler, Douglas, etc.).  They don't play enough defense to be a serious championship contender this year, but they are good enough now to attract Carmello Anthony is next summer's free agency.  If that happens, they might jump into the championship equation next season.

5. Orlando Magic: Orlando is a completely different team from the start of the season.  Gone are Rashard Lewis, Vince Carter, Marcin Gortat and Mikael Pietrus.  The Magic in return for those players got Hedo Turkoglu, Jason Richardson and Gilbert Arenas.  They will still be able to shoot the three, and they still have Dwight Howard, but they don't have enough around him to seriously contend anymore.  Plus, they gave up their back up center, so now when Howard gets in foul trouble, they have nobody to back him up.  Howard gets into foul trouble almost every game, so that could be a problem.  However, they did just beat the Spurs and the Celtics, two of the best teams in the league, so I guess they do have the potential to contend in the East.

After those 5 teams the talent pool in the East gets thin.  The Hawks are up and down, and without Joe Johnson, they shouldn't be a major player in the East this season.  The Pacers and Bucks are improving, but will most likely be one and done in the playoffs.

Here are my revamped predictions for how the rest of the season will play out:

1. Boston Celtics (62-20)
2. Miami Heat (61-21)
3. Chicago Bulls (54-28)
4. Orlando Magic (52-30)
5. New York Knicks (48-34)
6. Atlanta Hawks (45-37)
7. Milwaukee Bucks (44-38)
8. Indiana Pacers (40-42)

We'll see how the rest of the season pans out, but I don't see how anybody other than the Celtics and Heat can get to the Eastern Conference Finals.  I thought maybe the Bulls would have a chance to get there, and I really didn't expect the Celtics to be as good as they have been to this point.  Those two teams at the top are the best in the conference, and I would expect to see them playing eachother at the end of the season in the playoffs.

Tuesday, December 21, 2010

Bulls/Bears/Blackhawks

There is lots of interesting stuff going on in Chicago sports right now.  I figured I would take a look at all three teams currently in season.

I have really liked what I have seen from the Chicago Bulls all season, but especially in the past 3 weeks since Carlos Boozer has joined the team.  With Boozer in the lineup the Bulls are 8-3, and are winning games by double digits, which is nice to see.  Boozer has been a double-double machine as of late, averaging 18 points and 10 rebounds per night since coming back from injury.  The bad news for the Bulls is that Joakim Noah is out for at least 8 weeks with a torn ligament in the thumb of his shooting hand.  He was playing so well, and looked poised to make his first all-star game.  Not only that, but he and Boozer were playing fantastic basketball alongside each other.  Noah's outstanding defensive play gives Boozer more opportunities to bring down rebounds on the weak side, and Noah's ability to play pick and roll basketball also gives Boozer opportunities to score from the post offensively.  They had won seven straight games, and then Noah goes down and the Bulls let up for one game against the Clippers.  They did rebound tonight with a blowout win against the 76ers, and their schedule for the next 3-4 weeks is extremely favorable, so they should be able to continue winning games until Noah gets healthy.  It's just a shame that he went down when the team looked poised to put together an unbelievable win streak.

The Blackhawks have been an up and down team this season, as they too have been bit by the injury bug.  Kane and Hossa have not seen game action for 2-3 weeks, and it has hurt the Hawks.  They can't seem to find any consistency for a solid length of time.  They'll win 2, then lose 3, then win 2, then lose 2, etc.  They recently defeated the Red Wings and Kings at home, so that is good.  Corey Crawford has taken over the number one goalie spot, and deservedly so.  Turco hasn't played anywhere near what he is capable of, and I wouldn't be surprised if the Hawks just went with Crawford for the rest of the season.  Toews and Sharp have been great lately, Bryan Bickell and Troy Brouwer have increased their offensive production as well.  They just aren't finding enough wins right now, and in a tough Western Conference that is so tightly packed, they need all the standings points they can get right now, while they play a heavy portion of their next 10-12 games at home.  Hopefully Kane and Hossa get healthy within the next few days, and the Hawks can put together a nice win streak.

Finally, the Bears did what most analysts said wouldn't happen this year.  They won the NFC North Division Championship, and secured a spot in the playoffs for the first time since 2006.  At the beginning of the season I said it wouldn't shock me to see the Bears win 10-11 games, and I am glad they helped me out.  The game against the Vikings was so much fun to watch, especially the Devin Hester punt return TD to break the return TD record.  A 40-14 romp was exactly what this team needed to regain their confidence after being manhandled against the Patriots a week ago.  I don't care what everybody thinks of him, I actually really like Jay Cutler as the quarterback for the Bears.  He can make all of the throws, he is very accurate, he is athletic, and this season he has played great football compared to last season. He has four games this season of 3 touchdown passes or more, and hasn't played a terrible game since the Redskins game where he was picked off 4 times.  Take away that game, and he has 20 TD passes, 9 interceptions.  Those are very good numbers.  The Bears' defense is one of the best in the league again this season, and with an improved offense in a conference where there are no guarantees, it wouldn't shock me to see the Bears playing deep into January.  I am not predicting that they will be in the Super Bowl or anything like that, but it wouldn't shock me if they were in contention.

Wednesday, December 15, 2010

Bulls win seventh straight, but lose Noah for 8-10 weeks

The Chicago Bulls continue to roll through what should be their easiest stretch of the season by far.  The Bulls beat up on an extremely weak Toronto Raptors team tonight, winning by a score of 110-93, but it took a big fourth quarter from the Raptors against the Bulls' bench just to get to the 17 point loss. 

On a night where Derrick Rose wasn't exactly healthy (sprained wrist and ankle, and apparently a sore hip as well), Carlos Boozer continued to show why he is a huge pick up for the Bulls.  He scored a season high 34 points and grabbed 12 rebounds as well.  His offense has gotten better every game, and tonight his ability to finish at the rim while taking contact was on display.  The first three quarters of this game belonged to Boozer.  Toronto had no answer for him, or anybody else for that matter.  The Bulls basically ran a layup drill for the first three quarters of this game, and it was a route from start to finish.

Rose only scored 6 points in this game, but he was not looking for his own points because Boozer was unstoppable.  Rose did have 11 assists, and was excellent at leading his team on both ends of the floor.  Korver stepped in off the bench with a big game, Deng played another solid game offensively, and Ronnie Brewer continues to play stellar defense off the bench.

The worst news coming out of the game was about Joakim Noah.  He played very well tonight, scoring 11 points and collecting 11 rebounds along with 2 blocks.  However, after the game it was reported that Noah will have surgery to repair the torn ligament in his right thumb, and he is expected to miss 8-10 weeks.  That is a huge loss for the Bulls, who were just beginning to gain confidence and improved chemistry. 

The good news about Noah going down with an injury at this point in the season is that the Bulls play against inferior teams for the next 3-4 weeks.  Hopefully they can continue to win games while figuring out a new rotation for their big men.  Taj Gibson and Omer Asik should see alot of minutes now, and Boozer is going to have to be consistent with both his rebounding and scoring now.  The Bulls cannot afford anybody else to get injured if they are going to stay near the top of a very competitive Eastern Conference.

The Bulls currently sit in first place in the Central Division, a full five games ahead of the Indiana Pacers.  They are also 3rd in the Eastern Conference.  Hopefully they won't lose too much ground in either race, but it has to be a huge let down for the Bulls, who were just starting to play with confidence and swagger. 

Friday, December 10, 2010

The Bulls are for real!

The Bulls won their fourth straight game tonight, and against a very good team too.  They defeated the Los Angeles Lakers 88-84 tonight at home, pushing their record to 13-8, and a surprising 10-4 against the Western Conference, which in past years has been the dominant conference.  Not surprisingly, this four game winning streak has coincided with the return of Carlos Boozer to the lineup.  His presence on the floor gives the Bulls a legitimate second scoring option, and also spaces the floor for the Bulls' shooters, who have improved tremendously since Boozer's return.

I talk about this all the time now, but Derrick Rose is the man.  If he wasn't being talked about as an MVP candidate, he should be after tonight's performance.  Rose put up 29 points, 9 assists, and 5 rebounds in the win.  He outplayed Kobe Bryant, who has been considered the game's best closer for the past several seasons.  Rose also severely outplayed any of the Laker point guards, who couldn't do anything to stop him, and also could not get anything going on the offensive end.  Rose's numbers look good, but his timing and clutch performance was fantastic, and has been unbelievable all season long.  Rose made a fade away, long distance two point shot coming out of an inbounds pass with 3 seconds on the shot clock, right in front of the Lakers' bench.  He also nailed a mid-range jumper to put the Bulls up by 5 with 25 seconds to go in the game.  He has been fantastic all season long, and is only showing signs of getting better.  It should be exciting to watch him continue to improve, and hopefully he can lead this team to a big win total this season.

This was a very important game for the Bulls because they were on a three game win streak coming in, and have 12 of their next 13 games against teams currently under .500.  If they continue to play as well as they have over the first 21 games, they can run off alot of wins during this stretch.  They need to win at least 10 games during that stretch.  The elite teams in the league take care of business against the weaker teams in the league.  Are they going to win every game? No.  However, they need to beat the teams they are supposed to beat a vast majority of the time.  Not only that, but I think it would do wonders for the Bulls' confidence (which is not lacking at all right now) if they could blow out a few of these weaker teams.  Winning games by alot of points gets the whole team involved, excited, and it also allows the starters to get rest in the fourth quarter.  The Bulls have only really blown out two teams so far this season (Portland and Golden State).  Hopefully they can win big tomorrow against the T-Wolves, and keep this winning streak going.

Thursday, December 9, 2010

Bears/Patriots

This week's matchup featuring the Bears and Patriots at Soldier Field is easily the biggest game the Bears have played in since they were in the Super Bowl four years ago.  The Bears are riding a 5 game winning streak, and the Patriots are widely recognized as the best team in the NFL.  Both teams are in first place in their division, and the game has huge playoff implications.  So, the question for most Bears fans is: Do the Bears have any chance of beating the Patriots?

The Patriots are coming off a very inspired, dominating performance at home against the New York Jets. What was built up for weeks as the biggest game of the season in either conference, the Patriots rolled the Jets, 45-3, looking like a team destined for a championship run.  Tom Brady hasn't thrown an interception in 228 pass attempts, and has over 20 touchdowns during that span.  His receivers are playing at a high level, and you really can't key in on any one player.  Brady has two very good pass catching tight ends as well.  Right now the Patriots have to be considered the best offense in the league, especially in their passing game.  Defensively, the Patriots are young, but very athletic and extremely well coached.  They play at a high level as well, but can be scored on.  The Jets didn't take advantage of a young defense, as they turned the ball over alot this past week.  However, if you can take care of the ball on offense, you should have success against the Patriot defense.

The Bears, however, are coming off of a weak defensive effort, especially in the first half, against the Detroit Lions.  The Bears defense gave up over 250 yards in the first half of that game, before settling down and finishing strong in the second half.  Their tackling was the main problem.  They have to be sound in their tackling against the Patriots, and I would expect them to play better in this game.  Offensively the Bears have improved every game since the bye week.  Jay Cutler is doing a great job of taking care of the football as of late, and is easily in his best stretch as a Chicago Bear.  The running game has gotten on track, and the offensive line is improving, although they are probably still the worst in the league.  To me, the biggest improvement hasn't been by a player, it has been by a coach.  It took Mike Martz 7 games to realize that he just didn't have the offensive line to call 5 and 7 step drops.  During the bye week Martz tweeked his philosophy (for this season at least), and began to dial up a great balance of run and pass plays, while still being creative in doing both.  We've seen the Wildcat, pitch outs, options, end-arounds, wide receiver screens and reverse plays, quick slants, and various other quick hit plays to help Jay Cutler get the ball out quickly.  Hopefully that continues down the stretch.

One thing to watch this Sunday will be how each team reacts to the weather conditions.  I read that the forecast is calling for snow, as well as cold temperatures (possibly negative) and wind.  It sounds brutal, and should make for an interesting game if that kind of weather does happen, especially for two teams who depend highly on the passing game to produce. 

The Bears have stepped up to the challenge this season in big games (Cowboys, Packers, Vikings, Eagles).  I would expect them to play alot better defensively in this game.  If they are able to somehow eek out a win against the Patriots, you would have to consider them one of the top teams in the NFC, if not the NFL.

Monday, December 6, 2010

Second Straight Win for Bulls!

The Chicago Bulls won their second straight game at home tonight against one of the better teams in the league, the Oklahoma City Thunder.  This was an important game, and a timely one as well, catching the Thunder on the second night of back to back games.  The Bulls definitely took advantage, especially on defense, forcing the Thunder to shoot just 35% from the field.  The Thunder are one of the better offensive teams in the league, and the Bulls held them to just 90 points for the game.

Carlos Boozer had his second strong performance in a row after struggling in his first two games against Orlando and Boston.  Boozer scored 29 points and chipped in 11 rebounds, his first double-double as a member of the Bulls.  He has increased his scoring every game so far, which was important tonight because Derrick Rose had an off night shooting the ball.  Rose was just 3-13 from the field, and one of those was a lucky half-court shot at the end of the third quarter.  Rose did other things very well though, adding 9 assists and 5-6 rebounds in the game.  He also had several key defensive plays, including a charge.  Luol Deng had an excellent game as well, with 19 points, 8 rebounds and 4 assists.  Korver and Brewer each had nice games off the bench.  Korver hit two huge three pointers in the second quarter that gave the Bulls a little separation.  Joakim Noah did a nice job when he was in the game, but he was in foul trouble tonight, and ended up fouling out in the final minute of the game.  The line on Noah was 6 points, 12 rebounds, and 6 assists.  It was great to see the Bulls win a game when two of their top players didn't have great offensive nights.  It is also good to know that they have other players who can step up when Rose and Noah aren't scoring as they normally do.

I can't believe how awful the Bulls' free throw shooting is.  I don't know what they finished from the line tonight, but at one point they were 3-10 from the line.  30% from the line is ridiculous for any team, especially a professional team.  Eventually they are going to be in some close games where a couple of free throws missed could cost them the game.  They need to be better than that at the free throw line.

There is a pretty nice stretch of games coming up for the Bulls in the next few weeks.  They do play the Lakers at home this Friday, which is always a tough match up, but before then they play against a struggling Cleveland team, and after the Lakers on Friday, 12 of their next 14 games are against teams with losing records.  Hopefully the Bulls can get a pretty good win streak going against some of those weaker teams in the league, gain confidence, and start putting up some wins against the elite teams.  Good win tonight, and hopefully they keep it rolling.  Go Bulls!

Saturday, December 4, 2010

Chicago Bulls

The Bulls eeked out a close game at home against the Houston Rockets tonight, 118-116 in overtime.  They currently sit at 10-8, which is good enough for first place in the division.  Derrick Rose was unbelievable again in this game, posting 30 points, 7 rebounds, 11 assists and 5 steals.  Carlos Boozer had easily his best game as a Bull, eventhough there has only been a three game sample space.  He went for 25 points and 9 rebounds.  The play of the game was Derrick Rose's game tying three pointer as the buzzer sounded to force overtime.  While I am glad they won the game, there are a few things that concern me about the team right now.

1. They are not playing very good team defense.  They have given up over 100 points in three straight games, including tonight against a Rockets team that didn't have two of their top players (Yao Ming and Aaron Brooks).  Tom Thibodeau is known as a defensive coach, and he did an excellent job the past few seasons with the Boston Celtics.  However, the Boston Celtics have players who are willing to sacrifice some of their offense to play great team defense, and I don't think the Bulls are there yet.  Noah plays good defense, and Taj Gibson gives great defensive effort when he's on the floor, but that is about it.  They are routinely late on rotations, and so far this season good shooting teams have murdered them from the three point line.  If they are going to make the jump from the middle of the pack to the top of the pack, they need to turn it around on the defensive end.

2. The Bulls struggle to win games against good teams.  I hope this will change as the season moves along, and Rose and Boozer continue to develop good chemistry (which really started in the game tonight).  So far this year they have lost games to Oklahoma City, Boston (twice), San Antonio, Denver, LA Lakers, Orlando, and the New York Knicks.  All of those teams are well over .500, and will make the playoffs and be competetive.  They were only really blown out by Orlando, so they have been competing.  However, they need to start winning some of those games if they are going to be an elite team.  I don't think they will be competing for a championship this year, but in order to gain the confidence and swagger that championship teams need, the Bulls have to learn how to beat those kinds of teams. 

3. Clearly the Bulls need a starting shooting guard.  Right now they have one of the top 3 point guards in the league in Rose, an above average small forward in Deng, a great low post scorer and rebounder in Boozer, an energetic, defensive minded center in Noah, and a rotation of 4 back up shooting guards (Bogans, Korver, Brewer, and James Johnson).  Bogans should not be starting anymore.  He can't handle the ball, he can't shoot that well, and he doesn't play good enough defense to warrant starter's minutes.  Korver isn't the answer either, as he is all offense, and for the money the Bulls paid, his shooting percentage from 3 isn't what it should be.  Brewer is a great defender, and I like how he fits in with what the Bulls do in transition.  He can't shoot from outside though, and the Bulls need a shooter to stretch the floor.  Alot of people have been calling for the Bulls to make a huge deal to try and get Carmelo Anthony.  That move would likely cost the Bulls both of their first round picks, Taj Gibson and Luol Deng.  To me, that is way too much to give up.  I would much rather see the Bulls develop their team chemistry, and use both of their draft picks (one of which should be a lottery pick coming from the Charlotte Bobcats) on shooters that can stretch the floor. 

It's been a long time since the Bulls have had a team that was exciting to watch.  I really think they are close now.  Derrick Rose is a great player having an MVP calibur season, Joakim Noah is a much improved offensive player, and is a winner, and Boozer adds another serious offensive threat for Rose to look to for help.  They are close to becoming a good team, and hopefully another season or two of experience will make them an elite team.