Wednesday, September 22, 2010

Bears/Packers Week 3 Preview

It's Wednesday, which means that teams all over the NFL are beginning to establish their game plans for this week's opponent.  Last week was an important week for the Chicago Bears.  They went from "This team that should have lost to the Lions sucks" to "This team that outplayed the Cowboys in Dallas could actually be a decent football team".  Other teams around the league are starting to notice the Bears, especially their passing game.  It has only been 2 games, but still, Bears fans should be excited.  We haven't had a quarterback play this well in years, and hopefully it continues.  While the Bears are starting to earn respect from other teams and analysts alike, a win this week at home on Monday night against the Green Bay Packers would prove that the Bears deserve the respect. 

Offensive Preview

Offensive Line: Advantage Packers
Green Bay: Chad Clifton, Daryn Colledge, Scott Wells, Josh Sitton, Mark Tauscher: The Packers' offensive line does everything pretty well.  They run block extremely well, and they pass block well for Aaron Rodgers, who is arguably the best quarterback in the NFC.  The Packers offense is a versatile offense that gets the running game going, and then beating the defense down the field with play-action pass plays.  The O-line does a great job setting up all of their play calls.  They might not be the best line in the league, but they are very good, and the Bears will have a big challenge trying to rush the passer.

Chicago: Chris Williams, Roberto Garza, Olin Kreutz, Lance Louis, Frank Omiyale: The Bears' offensive line played ok last week, especially considering they were being ripped to shreds at the beginning of the game.  Williams left the game with a hamstring injury in the first quarter.  Consequently, the Cowboys did not register one sack after Williams left.  The O-line seemed to gain more confidence from its performance in Dallas, but they will need to be even better to stop a very aggressive 3-4 Packers defense.

Quarterback: Advantage Packers (by a very thin margin)
Packers: Aaron Rodgers: I will be the first to admit that I didn't think Rodgers was going to be that great out of college.  I was mistaken, however, as Aaron Rodgers has taken the league by storm over the past 2 seasons.  He's a very accurate QB, athletic, makes sound decisions, and has a terrific supporting cast.  He also played very well against the Bears last season, and I would expect him to come out firing on Monday, especially since he has been on the record as saying that he hasn't even come close to playing his best football.  That might be something the Bears should worry about.

Bears: Jay Cutler: Cutler is off to a fantastic start this season.  He currently leads the league in passer rating, has only thrown 1 interception in the first two games, and has racked up 5 TD passes.  He is making good decisions, and the offense seems to be gelling extremely well.  Martz and Cutler have a good thing going.  If Cutler prepares well this week, he should perform at a high level again.  He played against a similar style of 3-4 defense last week against the Cowboys, so he should get some similar looks.  I wouldn't be surprised if he had another great game.  I'll say 280 yards, 3 TD's 1 interception for cutler this week.  Again, if he can put up those kinds of numbers against another top ranked defense, Cutler could finally prove to be worth the trade.  I think he's starting to become one of the top QB's in the NFC.

Running Backs: Advantage Bears
Packers: Brandon Jackson, John Kuhn, Dimitri Nance: The Packers might have had the edge here if Ryan Grant hadn't been injured for the rest of the season.  However, without Grant, I don't think the Packers' running game will be as dynamic.  The line will still run block effectively, but they probably won't pop as many long runs, and will have to rely on their passing game more in order to keep their offense atop the scoring leaders in the NFL.

Bears: Matt Forte, Chester Taylor: So far the Bears' RB's have split the time in the backfield, and each looks pretty good, especially in the passing game.  The Bears have one of the worst run blocking offensive lines in the league through two games, and that has to improve.  However, a big part of the Martz offense is using the running backs in screens and slot receiver routes.  To this point, Matt Forte has made a gigantic impact in the passing game.  If he gets going in the run game, look out.  He could have a huge impact in Monday night's game.  I'll take Forte and Taylor over the Packer RB's in this week's game.

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends: Advantage Packers
Packers: Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, Jermichael Finley, Jordy Nelson, James Jones: The Packer receivers aren't flashy, and they aren't big names, but they do perform consistently well game in and game out.  Driver has been a thorn in the Bears' side in the past, and Jennings and Finley are very good receivers across the middle.  The Bears linebackers and secondary will have to step up to the challenge this week in coverage. 

Bears: Devin Hester, Johnny Knox, Devin Aromashodu, Earl Bennett, Greg Olsen: The Bears receivers are still not respected around the league, although you can clearly see the improvement in the group as a whole.  The great part about the Martz offense is that no particular receiver is going to be the number one guy.  The system requires the quarterback to make the right read and get the ball out of his hand before the receiver comes open, which means the receivers are held accountable for running crisp routes, as well as running the correct routes.  The fact that Cutler is among the league leaders in every passing statistic in the first 2 weeks of the season should show that the Bears' receivers are improving.  They need to continue to do so this week.

Defensive Preview:
Defensive Line: Advantage Even:
Packers: Ryan Pickett, B.J. Raji, Cullen Jenkins: The Packers play a 3-4 defense, and their nose tackle is a good one (B.J. Raji, out of Boston College).  The Packers D-line is good, but not the focal point of their defense.  They do play well against the run, and against a struggling Bears rushing attack, I would expect the Packer D-line to have a good game in that respect.

Bears: Marcus Anderson, Tommie Harris, Anthony Adams, Julius Peppers: The Bears D-line has played extremely well against the run both weeks, making both the Lions and Cowboys one dimensional.  The Bears aren't going to be easy to run against, but in the passing game, the D-line needs to make a bigger impact.  I would look for Peppers to have a breakout game this week.  He really gets up for nationally televised games, and seems to perform well under pressure.  This week is a pressure game for the Bears, and I expect the line to get more pressure, if not a couple of sacks, on Aaron Rodgers.

Linebackers: Advantage Even
Packers: Clay Matthews, A.J. Hawk, Nick Barnett, Brad Jones: The first three names on this list are ridiculous.  Clay Matthews has gotten off to a great start (potential defensive player of the year?).  A.J. Hawk and Nick Barnett are pro-bowl calibur linebackers as well, and both play with a high motor.  To me, this is the strength of the Packer defense.  This unit plays the run well, they are great in coverage, and they rush the passer very well (Matthews had 3 sacks in last week's game against Buffalo).  I don't really think the Packer linebackers have been tested, having played the Eagles and Bills.  I think the Bears receivers and backs are better than the teams the Packers have played, so this game should show us just how good this unit is (although I have a feeling they are great).

Bears: Brian Urlacher, Lance Briggs, Pisa Tinoisamoa: The Bears strength defensively for years has been the linebacking corps.  Urlacher is healthy (finally), and it has showed in the first two games.  He is quick to the ball, covers the field extremely well, and is a sure tackler.  Briggs might be better than Urlacher.  He is all over the field, making impact plays on seemingly every possession.  The Bears linebacking unit is one of the best in the NFC because of those two.  The weakside linebacker just has to tackle well, because Urlacher and Briggs are two of the best in the league.  They will play great on Monday night.

Secondary: Advantage Packers
Packers: Charles Woodson, Tramon Williams, Morgan Burnett, Nick Collins: Woodson was the Defensive Player of the Year last season, and Nick Collins is a very good Free Safety.  The Bears will have a tough time with whoever Woodson matches up against (likely to be Hester).  I would look for the Bears to attack the middle of the field, and the sideline opposite Woodson in the passing game.

Bears: Zack Bowman, Charles Tillman, Danieal Manning, Chris Harris: I thought this unit was going to be weak this season, but through two games I am pleasantly surprised.  They gave up alot of yards last week, but kept the Cowboys from getting any big plays, and also forced three turnovers.  D.J. Moore had a great showing last week, with 2 interceptions and was in on a forced fumble as well.  They will need to play big again this week, going up against one of the top QB's in the NFL, as well as a group of versatile, tough receivers.

Special Teams: Advantage Bears
Packers: The Packers have a pretty accurate kicker in Mason Crosby, although the offense is so good that they really don't need their special teams to score.  They just need the special teams to set them up for scoring opportunities.  The kick and punt returners (Jordy Nelson and Tramon Williams) aren't anything spectacular, but get the job done.

Bears: I will still take Robbie Gould over any kicker in the NFL when it comes to accuracy.  The Bears did give up a punt return touchdown last week, but I wouldn't expect that to happen again this week.  The Bears returners, on the other hand, have been so close to taking one back for a touchdown.  Johnny Knox and Danieal Manning are two of the best return men in the NFC, and Devin Hester is just aching to bring back a punt.  It's going to happen sooner or later, and it would be awesome to see against the Packers.

Prediction: This is a huge game for both teams.  If the Bears want to be taken seriously as a playoff contender, they have to win this game at home.  The Packers are expected to win this game, and that's the thing.  Sometimes the toughest games to win are the games you are expected to win.  In order for the Bears to win this week, they have to assemble some type of running game, and make an effort to continue running the ball to keep the Packers honest.  The Packers will probably blitz alot, and I would expect them to continue blitzing, where the Cowboys last week stopped their blitz, and Cutler killed them.  My prediction: Packers 24-Bears 21.  I think the Bears are alot better than people think, and may have a chance to win this game.  I will take the Packers to win, but not by much, if they do.

I might even re-think my prediction later on.  I think the Bears are on an upward trend, and I hope they show the Packers that they are for real in the NFC North.  Not many people give the Bears any credit for winning last week's game, but I saw it as a big step in the right direction.  They need to pile up wins now, because the last 4 games on the schedule are going to be very tough.

Well, there you have it.  I will probably be blogging more regularly now that hockey and basketball are starting up.  Lots to talk about too, the Hawks start their pre-season tonight, and the Bulls are in on the Carmelo sweepstakes.  Should be lots to look forward to in Chicago sports over the next few weeks.

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