Basketball Season Predictions

The NBA season has just tipped off, and alot of people (myself included) are pretty excited about seeing what happens in the Eastern Conference this season.  Here are my predictions, and keep in mind, that I wrote this a while back (before the injury to Carlos Boozer).  The win totals for the Bulls are probably not likely to be as high as I have predicted based on that injury.  Enjoy!

2010-2011 NBA Eastern Conference Regular Season and Playoff Predictions

Atlantic Division

Team	Wins	Losses
Boston Celtics	52	30
New York Knicks	41	41
Philadelphia 76ers	38	44
Toronto Raptors	32	50
New Jersey Nets	30	52

Central Division

Team	Wins	Losses
Chicago Bulls	54	28
Milwaukee Bucks	46	36
Indiana Pacers	39	43
Cleveland Cavaliers	36	46
Detroit Pistons	31	51

Southeast Division

Team	Wins	Losses
Miami Heat	68	14
Orlando Magic	58	24
Atlanta Hawks	47	35
Charlotte Bobcats	36	46
Washington Wizards	34	48

Playoff Seeding

1.       Miami Heat (68-14)

2.       Orlando Magic (58-24)

3.       Chicago Bulls (54-28)

4.       Boston Celtics (52-30)

5.       Atlanta Hawks (47-35)

6.       Milwaukee Bucks (46-36)

7.       New York Knicks (41-41)

8.       Indiana Pacers (39-43)

Analysis of Regular Season and Playoff Seeding Predictions

The whole balance of power in the NBA has shifted from the Western Conference to the Eastern Conference with the events of the “Summer of 2010 Free Agency”.  I decided to take a shot at predicting how I think the Eastern Conference will play out this season.  Once the NBA regular season starts, I will re-vamp my picks at the end of each month, and see exactly how close my original predictions were.

1.       The Miami Heat (68-14).  They are easily the best team (on paper) with the signing of LeBron, Wade and Bosh.  They have a shot at the all-time record for wins in a season (72), as long as the team develops good chemistry, and each player has a clearly defined role.  I don’t think they get to 70 wins this year.  The Celtics will beat them once (maybe twice), the Lakers will win both games, the Magic will beat them twice, the Bulls will beat them once, the Thunder will beat them once.  That’s seven losses right there.  There will also be a smattering of defeats by teams they should beat, such as the Atlanta Hawks, Milwaukee Bucks, San Antonio Spurs, Dallas Mavericks, Houston Rockets, Denver Nuggets, and Portland Trail Blazers.  I could see each of those teams winning a game against Miami.  Still, 68-14 is a damn good record, and easily gives the Heat the top overall seed in the NBA.

2.       The Orlando Magic (58-24): The Magic are still a very talented team, and their size up front with Dwight Howard will give Miami a tough time when they play.  Their backcourt is a strength, as they are one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the league.  They aren’t as athletic as Miami, and won’t be able to keep up with their pace all season, even though I see Orlando beating Miami twice in head-to-head matchups this season.  The Magic cruise into the playoffs with the second seed in the East, and possibly the second best overall record in the NBA.

3.       Chicago Bulls (54-28): The Bulls will make the jump to the top half of the Eastern Conference this season.  Derrick Rose will elevate his game to among the elite, Noah is poised for an even better season than the great one he had last year, and the addition of Carlos Boozer gives the Bulls two 20 point per game scorers in their starting lineup.  They should be very balanced, and play great team defense.  They will have trouble with Miami, although they will beat them once in Chicago in a close game.  The Lakers, Thunder, Magic, and Celtics will all be good tests for this Bulls team, and other teams will challenge them as well at times (Bucks, Knicks, Pacers).  Still, the Bulls will finish with the third seed in the East, and home court advantage in round one.

4.       Boston Celtics (52-30): The Celtics added to their frontcourt depth this offseason by signing the two O’Neals (Jermaine and Shaq).  Rondo is rapidly becoming one of the best pure point guards in the game (reminds me a lot of John Stockton in the sense that he is a passer first, shooter second.).  Pierce, Allen, and Garnett are all getting older, Shaq will probably be a role player, similar to last year in Cleveland.  I still think they will be tough to beat.  Their bench depth is fantastic with Nate Robinson, Glen Davis, Jermaine O’Neal, Shaq, Avery Bradley, and Luke Harangody.  I think they fall in behind the Bulls because of their age.  Once they clinch their division and seal up home court in the first round, I could see Doc sitting his starters to keep them fresh for the playoff run.

5.       Atlanta Hawks (47-35): The Hawks re-signed Joe Johnson to a stupid contract.  They return the same team that got them the third seed in the playoffs last year, but with the top four teams in the East (Miami, Orlando, Chicago, Boston) all making improvements to their playoff rosters from last season, the Hawks drop to fifth in the East.

6.       Milwaukee Bucks (46-36): The Bucks made some significant pick ups this off season as well.  Re-signing John Salmons was a nice move, but he will have to continue playing like he did with the Bucks last year to prove his worth.  Drew Gooden provides some size and valuable contributions in the front court, and a healthy Andrew Bogut should make this team tough to play against.  Miami, Orlando, Chicago, and Boston should beat them consistently in the East, and teams out west like the Lakers, Thunder, Spurs, Nuggets, Rockets and Mavericks should beat them twice as well.  The Bucks finish the season as the sixth seed in the East.

7.       New York Knicks (41-41): I can’t believe I am actually predicting this.  In spite of the fact that I hate the Knicks, they are an improved team (at least on paper).  Stoudemire doesn’t play defense even a little bit, but he does rebound and score at will when he wants to.  Gallinari is a great outside shooting threat, and I really like the signing of Raymond Felton from Charlotte.  He will be a solid starting point guard for the Knicks this season.  They will not compete with the top teams in the East or West this season, but there are enough bottom-feeders in the league that the Knicks should see enough victories to get them into the playoffs this season.  That would go a long way toward wooing Carmello Anthony and Chris Paul over the next two years.

8.       Indiana Pacers (39-43): This is my stretch pick.  I thought about this seeding the most of any of the top eight in the East.  The reason I went with the Pacers is because I really like the trade for Darren Collison.  Collison will be a great scoring and passing point guard in this league, and he should be glad he doesn’t have to sit behind Chris Paul anymore.  Collison/Granger/Rush is a great combination of perimeter players who can shoot, slash, drive the lane, kick out, and score in a variety of ways.  They will miss Troy Murphy, and probably have huge problems in the front court with Hibbert and Hansbrough having to play big minutes.  I still like that trio in the backcourt to score in bunches, and get the Pacers into the playoffs as the eight seed in the East.

9-15: A lot of these teams have improved, but not enough to challenge in the Eastern Conference.  The 76ers have a new coach (Doug Collins), a high draft pick (Evan Turner), and Elton Brand coming back from injury.  They still will have problems defensively, and won’t be able to score enough to offset those problems.  The Raptors won’t be a threat with Chris Bosh out of the picture.  They weren’t even a playoff team with him, and he was their best player.  I wouldn’t count on them being much of a factor.  The Nets will improve dramatically, and probably compete with teams a lot better than last season.  They still have a lot of work to do as they didn’t attract very many free agents during the off season.  The Cavaliers will struggle to find an identity with LeBron gone, although they will play hard and compete for new coach Byron Scott.  Detroit might be the worst team in the East, although I gave them 2 more wins than New Jersey.  They have ball-hogging shooters in their backcourt, and adding Tracy McGrady will only hurt in that respect.  Their core players are getting older, and the Pistons will be on the outside looking in for the second straight season.  Charlotte should regress this season with Raymond Felton and Tyson Chandler gone.  They’ll have to depend on more production from Tyrus Thomas, which is a dangerous proposition.  I like the moves the Wizards made.  John Wall is a superstar in the making, and they have all kinds of talent waiting in the wings.  The Hinrich trade was a good one.  I think it will take them a year to gel before they make the playoffs, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they ended up making a run at the eighth seed.

Well, there are my picks.  The Bulls probably won't win 54 (somewhere between 50-52 is likely still).  I will go back at the end of each month (starting in November) and see how I am doing on my predictions.  Let me know what you think, and feel free to jump in with your own predictions.