A couple of posts ago I made predictions of what would happen this season in the NBA's Eastern Conference. I decided that at the end of each month I would go back and review my predictions, and make new predictions as necessary. At the end of November the NBA Eastern Conference doesn't quite look like I thought it would. The standings are as follows:
1. Boston Celtics (12-4)
2. Orlando Magic (12-4)
3. Atlanta Hawks (11-7)
4. Chicago Bulls (9-6)
5. Miami Heat (9-8)
6. New York Knicks (9-9)
7. Indiana Pacers (7-7)
8. Cleveland Cavaliers (7-9)
9. Milwaukee Bucks (6-10)
10. Detroit Pistons (6-11)
11. Charlotte Bobcats (6-11)
12. Toronto Raptors (6-11)
13. Washington Wizards (5-10)
14. New Jersey Nets (5-11)
15. Philadelphia 76ers (4-13)
There are a few surpises in the early going this season, and the biggest one is definitely the Miami Heat. Many basketball analysts in the media had them winning 70 plus games. I will admit, I had them approaching 70 wins as well (my preseason prediction was that they'd win 68 games, and cruise to the number 1 seed in the East). However, after watching them play almost a quarter of the season, it is apparent that they are all perimeter. They are dead last in the league in points in the paint, and have been getting outrebounded on a nightly basis. Chris Bosh is a perimeter big man, not a post up, work for offensive rebounds and score in the paint big man. LeBron James has played very well, but Dwyane Wade has been flat out awful. Not only have the so called "Big Three" for Miami been outplayed by a majority of their opponents, their bench is the oldest bench in the league. They are blowing leads against teams they should beat, losing at home against teams they should beat, and getting blown out by the elite teams. People have been saying it'll take time for the Heat to figure it out. They've already played 17 games together. They should at least have a few things figured out by now. They clearly don't, but because of their perimeter talent they have managed to win 9 games.
Another big disappointment through November has been the Milwaukee Bucks. I picked them to go 46-36, and place second in the Central Division. Currently, they sit at 6-11, and in fourth place in the Central. Jennings hasn't played as well as he did last year, and the additions they made in the offseason are not working out as they planned either. However, I do think they will pick it up. Scott Skiles coached teams have typically gotten off to slow starts, and recovered in a big way. The 2005 Bulls were 0-9 before finishing 49-33, and gaining home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. Skiles was the coach of that team. He has more talent now, and I think the Bucks will rebound from a tough start.
The Knicks and Pacers have played alot better than I thought they would. The Pacers have already beaten the Heat in Miami, and the Knicks have won 6 of their last 8. Both of those teams play hard, and will probably make the playoffs this year if they stay healthy.
There have been some surprises, both disappointing and exciting, in the first month of the NBA season for the Eastern Conference. Here are my revised predictions after one month:
1. Boston Celtics (60-22): Boston is clearly the best team in the East when they are healthy. They have the best front court depth in the entire league (better than the Lakers' depth by far). Add to that the "Big Four" (Pierce, Allen, Garnett, and Rondo), plus two of the better bench players in the Eastern Conference in Big Baby Davis and Nate Robinson, and the Celtics are a deadly team. They do have a couple of head scratching losses (the Durant-less Thunder at home, the Raptors, and the Cavaliers have all beaten the Celtics this season). However, all 4 losses have come on the second night of a back-to-back, which are tough situations for any team, much less an older team. The Celts have several big wins, including two against the Miami Heat, who are clearly the inferior team when playing against Boston. One more thing about Boston before I move on: they have the best pure, all around point guard in the East. Rondo is the best passer, and one of the top defenders in the league, and is the force that drives the Celtics offensively, even if he doesn't score all that well. I like the Celtics to win the East.
2. Orlando Magic (58-24): Orlando keeps plugging along. They are 1-1 against the Heat, but are clearly better than them. Dwight Howard has an improved post game, and the work he did with Hakeem Olajuwon in the off-season has helped. They still hit a ton of three pointers, and run the floor extremely well in the fast break. While he isn't my favorite person, Stan Van Gundy is doing a great job coaching this team to play an up-tempo style, while also playing much better defensively. I will stick with Orlando to finish second in the East.
3. Chicago Bulls (52-30): My preseason prediction for the Bulls was that they would win 54, and I think they still could. I didn't know they'd be without Boozer for the first 15-20 games when I made that initial prediction, and I think alot of Bulls fans feared that they'd get off to a slow start without him. However, the Bulls sit at 9-6, and first place in the division without Boozer, who should be a huge factor offensively when he comes back. Joakim Noah has played inspired basketball to this point in the season (15.6 pts, 13.2 rebounds, 1.5 blocks and 1.5 steals per game so far). Derrick Rose has emerged as the best offensive point guard in the league. He is averaging 26.6 points and 8.2 assists per game. His assist totals should be higher too, if the Bulls had more players who could hit wide open mid-range jumpers. Nobody gets to the basket quicker and with more ease than Rose, and he is one of the best players in the leage at finishing at the rim. He has been unbelievable. I think the Bulls will only get better when they get Boozer back, and in the near future this team should put up alot of wins. They have a very favorable schedule in December and January.
4. Miami Heat (55-27): I think the Miami Heat will still be a good team eventually. They need a big man to step up and play good post basketball, but right now they don't have it. James has been great in his first season in Miami, but Bosh has been quiet, and Wade has been bad so far. They need those two to play well all the time, and I just don't see that happening for them. They will probably win a few more games than Chicago, but because they won't win their division, they get the fourth seed, and home-court advantage in round one.
5. Atlanta Hawks (49-33): Atlanta got off to a 6-0 start, and since have come back to the pack. They stand at 11-7. They are a decent team right now, but there is no way they can stay with the top teams in the conference as they have unpredictable play at the guard positions outside of Joe Johnson. I'll give them the fifth seed in the East.
6. New York Knicks (45-37): I predicted the Knicks would win 41 games at the beginning of the season. I like what I have seen from them so far as a team, even though I hate their freakin' guts. Raymond Felton was a great pick up for them at point guard, Toney Douglas has played well off the bench, Amar'e has done what they signed him to do, and they are scoring points in bunches, as a Mike D'Antoni team should do. They will get beat against good defensive teams, but they are better at this point than I thought they'd be.
7. Milwaukee Bucks (43-39): Milwaukee has gotten off to a poor start, but I think they'll rebound. They have too much talent not too with Bogut, Jennings, Maggette, etc. Skiles is a very good defensive coach, and they will right the ship on offense.
8. Indiana Pacers (41-41): I picked the Pacers to make the playoffs as the eighth seed, and I am stick with them. I liked their backcourt coming into the season (Collison, Rush, and Granger). Roy Hibbert has played much better that I thought he would. I still think the Pacers lack the front court depth to compete at a high level with the elite teams, even though they spanked the Heat in Miami a week or so ago. Still, they are much better than they've been in years past. I have them in the playoffs.
9-15: The Cavs are playing extremely hard for Byron Scott, and I sincerely hope they beat the tar out of the Heat this Thursday in LeBron's return to Cleveland. They just don't have the talent to keep up with the top teams in the conference, and that will show up in the near future. The rest of the teams are kind of pathetic actually. The Nets are playing better basketball, and are competing with good team, but can't find a way to win games. The Wizards are not good at all, and John Wall clearly isn't the rookie of the year, although he has shown flashes of being a great player at times (Blake Griffin has already won the rookie of the year award in my opinion. That dude is a monster.). The Pistons, Raptors, Bobcats and 76ers are all mediocre teams that shouldn't contend this season.
By my predictions, the first round of the playoffs would be:
Boston vs. Indiana
Orlando vs. Milwaukee
Chicago vs. New York
Miami vs. Atlanta
Well, there are my revamped predictions. Obviously I have changed a few things. It's still early in the season yet, so anything can still happen. I am just happy that the Heat won't be breaking the Bulls' record of 72 wins this season. They won't even come close. Anyways, I hope you enjoy the predictions, and as always, leave a comment if you'd like to. Thanks for reading.
Sunday, November 28, 2010
Monday, November 15, 2010
Are the Bears a Playoff Team?
Well, the Bears proved alot of people wrong this week. Leading into this game just about all of the "experts" were predicting that the Vikings would come into Chicago and roll over the Bears on the heels of their come from behind victory against the Arizona Cardinals last week. Then the two teams played, and the Bears absolutely dominated the game, especially in the second half. Jay Cutler had his best performance of the season since week 2 at Dallas, the offensive line did a nice job of giving Cutler time and space to move when the pocket did collapse, the receivers played an excellent game, and the running game worked very well. When you combine the improved (and very well balanced) offensive attack with an aggressive Bears' defense and a mediocre Vikings' offense, the Bears probably should have won this game with ease.
With the win, the Bears improved to 6-3, and moved into a first place tie with the Green Bay Packers in the NFC North. The Vikings are all but dead, not only in the division, but also for the wildcard. I would expect the Vikings to lose this week against Green Bay, and that should eliminate them from all the talk completely. However, I am not sure many people believe the Bears have what it takes to make the playoffs. Even after a big win, in which they dominated a team that is supposed to be competing for a championship this year, people are still doubting our Chicago Bears.
Granted, the Bears' schedule down the stretch is brutal. The last seven games of the season are at the Dolphins, home against the Eagles, at Detroit, home against the Patriots, at the Vikings, home against the Jets, and finally, at the Packers. Those are six teams that have played some pretty good football at times this season (the Lions included). None of those games are going to be guaranteed wins for the Bears. They have to play with the effort and intensity they played with in yesterday's ball game to give themselves a shot at winning the division. I think the playoffs are well within reach though.
All of the games remaining on the schedule are winnable for the Bears. They play against all three division opponents one more time, and they have already beaten those teams. Again, that isn't a guarantee that they will beat those teams on the road, but they can win those games. The Eagles and Dolphins are also winnable games. I will be very interested to see the Bears play against the Patriots and the Jets, who are two of the elite teams in the league. Those will be huge tests for the Bears as they near the end of the season. However, when you look at the schedule, at least five of the remaining seven games are winnable. If they can win at least 4 games down the stretch, you'd have to like their chances of getting into the playoffs as a wildcard.
The teams still in the hunt for the playoffs include: The Atlanta Falcons (7-2), The New York Giants (6-3), the Green Bay Packers (6-3), The Chicago Bears (6-3), The New Orleans Saints (6-3), the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-3), the Philadelphia Eagles (5-3), and whichever pathetic team in the NFC West wins that division (right now it looks like the Seattle Seahawks, who actually beat the Bears earlier this season). To me, none of those teams are really that much better than the Bears. All of the teams are very close, and it should be an interesting finish to the season. At the beginning of the season I said that I wouldn't be shocked to see the Bears win 10-11 games. They might not be that far away from that total after all. Go Bears!
With the win, the Bears improved to 6-3, and moved into a first place tie with the Green Bay Packers in the NFC North. The Vikings are all but dead, not only in the division, but also for the wildcard. I would expect the Vikings to lose this week against Green Bay, and that should eliminate them from all the talk completely. However, I am not sure many people believe the Bears have what it takes to make the playoffs. Even after a big win, in which they dominated a team that is supposed to be competing for a championship this year, people are still doubting our Chicago Bears.
Granted, the Bears' schedule down the stretch is brutal. The last seven games of the season are at the Dolphins, home against the Eagles, at Detroit, home against the Patriots, at the Vikings, home against the Jets, and finally, at the Packers. Those are six teams that have played some pretty good football at times this season (the Lions included). None of those games are going to be guaranteed wins for the Bears. They have to play with the effort and intensity they played with in yesterday's ball game to give themselves a shot at winning the division. I think the playoffs are well within reach though.
All of the games remaining on the schedule are winnable for the Bears. They play against all three division opponents one more time, and they have already beaten those teams. Again, that isn't a guarantee that they will beat those teams on the road, but they can win those games. The Eagles and Dolphins are also winnable games. I will be very interested to see the Bears play against the Patriots and the Jets, who are two of the elite teams in the league. Those will be huge tests for the Bears as they near the end of the season. However, when you look at the schedule, at least five of the remaining seven games are winnable. If they can win at least 4 games down the stretch, you'd have to like their chances of getting into the playoffs as a wildcard.
The teams still in the hunt for the playoffs include: The Atlanta Falcons (7-2), The New York Giants (6-3), the Green Bay Packers (6-3), The Chicago Bears (6-3), The New Orleans Saints (6-3), the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-3), the Philadelphia Eagles (5-3), and whichever pathetic team in the NFC West wins that division (right now it looks like the Seattle Seahawks, who actually beat the Bears earlier this season). To me, none of those teams are really that much better than the Bears. All of the teams are very close, and it should be an interesting finish to the season. At the beginning of the season I said that I wouldn't be shocked to see the Bears win 10-11 games. They might not be that far away from that total after all. Go Bears!
Monday, November 1, 2010
Bulls win, Deng scores 40!
The Bulls played by far their best, most complete game of the early season tonight, defeating the Portland Trailblazers at home by a final score of 110-98. I was a little worried about this game coming in, mostly due to Portland's frontcourt, which is very good. However, the Bulls got a career performance out of Luol Deng, and strong performances from Rose and Noah as well.
Luol Deng finished with a career high 40 points. He was aggressive offensively from the get go, and Derrick Rose did an outstanding job of getting him the ball in rhythm with wide open looks. Deng looked sluggish on the offensive end the first two games of the season, so it was good to see him bust out in a big way. Now he needs to be more consistent. The Bulls don't need him to average 30 points a night or anything, but they do need him to score the ball consistently, especially while Carlos Boozer is out of the lineup.
Derrick Rose had a more typical point guard line in this game. He finished with 16 points, 13 assists, and 5 rebounds. Alot of people have been saying that they don't think Rose is one of the top point guards in the game right now because his assist numbers aren't very high. That isn't all his fault though. Many times he gets the ball to open shooters who just miss the shots. Well, they hit those shots tonight, and Rose's assist numbers were terrific. The thing that impressed me about Rose in the game tonight was the fact that he didn't press when Portland decided to roll an extra defender his way. It would have been easy for him to do that coming off of a game in which he scored 39 points, and single handedly willed the Bulls to a comeback win. Instead, Rose did alot of pick and roll, and drive and kick offense, drawing defenders and hitting the open man for plenty of wide open looks. He only took 11 shots tonight, but made 6 of them, which is a very efficient offensive game. When you factor in the 13 assists, that is alot of offensive production from a point guard who is one of the best in the league.
Noah had a decent night, although he was plagued by foul trouble. He finished with 10 points, 10 rebounds, and 5 assists. He had a couple of blocks thrown in, and a couple of steals as well on the defensive side of things. Joakim had a tough night guarding LaMarcus Aldridge, who posted 35 points for the Blazers. Without Aldridge's scoring tonight this game is an absolute route. I think Noah needs to get more touches offensively. The only thing truly missing from his game is the threat of consistent offense. He doesn't need to have 20 shots per game or anything like that, but give him 5-7 post opportunities each game to let him develop in that area as well. If he could score in the post a few times per game, that would open things up alot more for the Bulls. Imagine the possibilities when Boozer is healthy as well. Rose, Deng (if he shoots consistently), Noah and Boozer all on the floor at the same time will pose many problems for good defensive teams.
Overall this was an important win for the Bulls. They beat an up and coming team and gave them their first loss of the season. It is vital for the Bulls to get off to a great start at home. They play 4 of their next 5 at home before going on that ridiculous 7 game Western Conference road trip, which they never do well on. Up next for the Bulls are the New York Knicks on Thursday night at the United Center, then a big test on the road in Boston on Friday night. Good start for the Bulls, who are now 2-1. Go Bulls!
Luol Deng finished with a career high 40 points. He was aggressive offensively from the get go, and Derrick Rose did an outstanding job of getting him the ball in rhythm with wide open looks. Deng looked sluggish on the offensive end the first two games of the season, so it was good to see him bust out in a big way. Now he needs to be more consistent. The Bulls don't need him to average 30 points a night or anything, but they do need him to score the ball consistently, especially while Carlos Boozer is out of the lineup.
Derrick Rose had a more typical point guard line in this game. He finished with 16 points, 13 assists, and 5 rebounds. Alot of people have been saying that they don't think Rose is one of the top point guards in the game right now because his assist numbers aren't very high. That isn't all his fault though. Many times he gets the ball to open shooters who just miss the shots. Well, they hit those shots tonight, and Rose's assist numbers were terrific. The thing that impressed me about Rose in the game tonight was the fact that he didn't press when Portland decided to roll an extra defender his way. It would have been easy for him to do that coming off of a game in which he scored 39 points, and single handedly willed the Bulls to a comeback win. Instead, Rose did alot of pick and roll, and drive and kick offense, drawing defenders and hitting the open man for plenty of wide open looks. He only took 11 shots tonight, but made 6 of them, which is a very efficient offensive game. When you factor in the 13 assists, that is alot of offensive production from a point guard who is one of the best in the league.
Noah had a decent night, although he was plagued by foul trouble. He finished with 10 points, 10 rebounds, and 5 assists. He had a couple of blocks thrown in, and a couple of steals as well on the defensive side of things. Joakim had a tough night guarding LaMarcus Aldridge, who posted 35 points for the Blazers. Without Aldridge's scoring tonight this game is an absolute route. I think Noah needs to get more touches offensively. The only thing truly missing from his game is the threat of consistent offense. He doesn't need to have 20 shots per game or anything like that, but give him 5-7 post opportunities each game to let him develop in that area as well. If he could score in the post a few times per game, that would open things up alot more for the Bulls. Imagine the possibilities when Boozer is healthy as well. Rose, Deng (if he shoots consistently), Noah and Boozer all on the floor at the same time will pose many problems for good defensive teams.
Overall this was an important win for the Bulls. They beat an up and coming team and gave them their first loss of the season. It is vital for the Bulls to get off to a great start at home. They play 4 of their next 5 at home before going on that ridiculous 7 game Western Conference road trip, which they never do well on. Up next for the Bulls are the New York Knicks on Thursday night at the United Center, then a big test on the road in Boston on Friday night. Good start for the Bulls, who are now 2-1. Go Bulls!
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