A couple of posts ago I made predictions of what would happen this season in the NBA's Eastern Conference. I decided that at the end of each month I would go back and review my predictions, and make new predictions as necessary. At the end of November the NBA Eastern Conference doesn't quite look like I thought it would. The standings are as follows:
1. Boston Celtics (12-4)
2. Orlando Magic (12-4)
3. Atlanta Hawks (11-7)
4. Chicago Bulls (9-6)
5. Miami Heat (9-8)
6. New York Knicks (9-9)
7. Indiana Pacers (7-7)
8. Cleveland Cavaliers (7-9)
9. Milwaukee Bucks (6-10)
10. Detroit Pistons (6-11)
11. Charlotte Bobcats (6-11)
12. Toronto Raptors (6-11)
13. Washington Wizards (5-10)
14. New Jersey Nets (5-11)
15. Philadelphia 76ers (4-13)
There are a few surpises in the early going this season, and the biggest one is definitely the Miami Heat. Many basketball analysts in the media had them winning 70 plus games. I will admit, I had them approaching 70 wins as well (my preseason prediction was that they'd win 68 games, and cruise to the number 1 seed in the East). However, after watching them play almost a quarter of the season, it is apparent that they are all perimeter. They are dead last in the league in points in the paint, and have been getting outrebounded on a nightly basis. Chris Bosh is a perimeter big man, not a post up, work for offensive rebounds and score in the paint big man. LeBron James has played very well, but Dwyane Wade has been flat out awful. Not only have the so called "Big Three" for Miami been outplayed by a majority of their opponents, their bench is the oldest bench in the league. They are blowing leads against teams they should beat, losing at home against teams they should beat, and getting blown out by the elite teams. People have been saying it'll take time for the Heat to figure it out. They've already played 17 games together. They should at least have a few things figured out by now. They clearly don't, but because of their perimeter talent they have managed to win 9 games.
Another big disappointment through November has been the Milwaukee Bucks. I picked them to go 46-36, and place second in the Central Division. Currently, they sit at 6-11, and in fourth place in the Central. Jennings hasn't played as well as he did last year, and the additions they made in the offseason are not working out as they planned either. However, I do think they will pick it up. Scott Skiles coached teams have typically gotten off to slow starts, and recovered in a big way. The 2005 Bulls were 0-9 before finishing 49-33, and gaining home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. Skiles was the coach of that team. He has more talent now, and I think the Bucks will rebound from a tough start.
The Knicks and Pacers have played alot better than I thought they would. The Pacers have already beaten the Heat in Miami, and the Knicks have won 6 of their last 8. Both of those teams play hard, and will probably make the playoffs this year if they stay healthy.
There have been some surprises, both disappointing and exciting, in the first month of the NBA season for the Eastern Conference. Here are my revised predictions after one month:
1. Boston Celtics (60-22): Boston is clearly the best team in the East when they are healthy. They have the best front court depth in the entire league (better than the Lakers' depth by far). Add to that the "Big Four" (Pierce, Allen, Garnett, and Rondo), plus two of the better bench players in the Eastern Conference in Big Baby Davis and Nate Robinson, and the Celtics are a deadly team. They do have a couple of head scratching losses (the Durant-less Thunder at home, the Raptors, and the Cavaliers have all beaten the Celtics this season). However, all 4 losses have come on the second night of a back-to-back, which are tough situations for any team, much less an older team. The Celts have several big wins, including two against the Miami Heat, who are clearly the inferior team when playing against Boston. One more thing about Boston before I move on: they have the best pure, all around point guard in the East. Rondo is the best passer, and one of the top defenders in the league, and is the force that drives the Celtics offensively, even if he doesn't score all that well. I like the Celtics to win the East.
2. Orlando Magic (58-24): Orlando keeps plugging along. They are 1-1 against the Heat, but are clearly better than them. Dwight Howard has an improved post game, and the work he did with Hakeem Olajuwon in the off-season has helped. They still hit a ton of three pointers, and run the floor extremely well in the fast break. While he isn't my favorite person, Stan Van Gundy is doing a great job coaching this team to play an up-tempo style, while also playing much better defensively. I will stick with Orlando to finish second in the East.
3. Chicago Bulls (52-30): My preseason prediction for the Bulls was that they would win 54, and I think they still could. I didn't know they'd be without Boozer for the first 15-20 games when I made that initial prediction, and I think alot of Bulls fans feared that they'd get off to a slow start without him. However, the Bulls sit at 9-6, and first place in the division without Boozer, who should be a huge factor offensively when he comes back. Joakim Noah has played inspired basketball to this point in the season (15.6 pts, 13.2 rebounds, 1.5 blocks and 1.5 steals per game so far). Derrick Rose has emerged as the best offensive point guard in the league. He is averaging 26.6 points and 8.2 assists per game. His assist totals should be higher too, if the Bulls had more players who could hit wide open mid-range jumpers. Nobody gets to the basket quicker and with more ease than Rose, and he is one of the best players in the leage at finishing at the rim. He has been unbelievable. I think the Bulls will only get better when they get Boozer back, and in the near future this team should put up alot of wins. They have a very favorable schedule in December and January.
4. Miami Heat (55-27): I think the Miami Heat will still be a good team eventually. They need a big man to step up and play good post basketball, but right now they don't have it. James has been great in his first season in Miami, but Bosh has been quiet, and Wade has been bad so far. They need those two to play well all the time, and I just don't see that happening for them. They will probably win a few more games than Chicago, but because they won't win their division, they get the fourth seed, and home-court advantage in round one.
5. Atlanta Hawks (49-33): Atlanta got off to a 6-0 start, and since have come back to the pack. They stand at 11-7. They are a decent team right now, but there is no way they can stay with the top teams in the conference as they have unpredictable play at the guard positions outside of Joe Johnson. I'll give them the fifth seed in the East.
6. New York Knicks (45-37): I predicted the Knicks would win 41 games at the beginning of the season. I like what I have seen from them so far as a team, even though I hate their freakin' guts. Raymond Felton was a great pick up for them at point guard, Toney Douglas has played well off the bench, Amar'e has done what they signed him to do, and they are scoring points in bunches, as a Mike D'Antoni team should do. They will get beat against good defensive teams, but they are better at this point than I thought they'd be.
7. Milwaukee Bucks (43-39): Milwaukee has gotten off to a poor start, but I think they'll rebound. They have too much talent not too with Bogut, Jennings, Maggette, etc. Skiles is a very good defensive coach, and they will right the ship on offense.
8. Indiana Pacers (41-41): I picked the Pacers to make the playoffs as the eighth seed, and I am stick with them. I liked their backcourt coming into the season (Collison, Rush, and Granger). Roy Hibbert has played much better that I thought he would. I still think the Pacers lack the front court depth to compete at a high level with the elite teams, even though they spanked the Heat in Miami a week or so ago. Still, they are much better than they've been in years past. I have them in the playoffs.
9-15: The Cavs are playing extremely hard for Byron Scott, and I sincerely hope they beat the tar out of the Heat this Thursday in LeBron's return to Cleveland. They just don't have the talent to keep up with the top teams in the conference, and that will show up in the near future. The rest of the teams are kind of pathetic actually. The Nets are playing better basketball, and are competing with good team, but can't find a way to win games. The Wizards are not good at all, and John Wall clearly isn't the rookie of the year, although he has shown flashes of being a great player at times (Blake Griffin has already won the rookie of the year award in my opinion. That dude is a monster.). The Pistons, Raptors, Bobcats and 76ers are all mediocre teams that shouldn't contend this season.
By my predictions, the first round of the playoffs would be:
Boston vs. Indiana
Orlando vs. Milwaukee
Chicago vs. New York
Miami vs. Atlanta
Well, there are my revamped predictions. Obviously I have changed a few things. It's still early in the season yet, so anything can still happen. I am just happy that the Heat won't be breaking the Bulls' record of 72 wins this season. They won't even come close. Anyways, I hope you enjoy the predictions, and as always, leave a comment if you'd like to. Thanks for reading.
No comments:
Post a Comment