Thursday, January 27, 2011

NBA at Mid-season

We are just over halfway through the NBA regular season, and the playoff picture in both conferences has pretty much taken form, especially in the top half of each conference.  While the playoff seeds are still very much up for grabs, the top teams in each conference have clearly separated themselves. 

The conference standings as they are right now are as follows:

Eastern Conference:
1. Boston Celtics (34-10)
2. Miami Heat (31-13)
3. Chicago Bulls (31-14)
4. Orlando Magic (30-16)
5. Atlanta Hawks (29-17)
6. New York Knicks (23-21)
7. Philadelphia 76ers (20-25)
8. Charlotte Bobcats (19-25)
9.Milwaukee Bucks (17-26)
10. Indiana Pacers (16-26)
11. Detroit Pistons(17-29)
12. New Jersey Nets (14-32)
13. Washington Wizards (13-31)
14. Toronto Raptors (13-33)
15. Cleveland Cavaliers (8-37)

Western Conference:
1. San Antonio Spurs (39-7)
2. Los Angeles Lakers (33-13)
3. New Orleans Hornets (31-16)
4. Oklahomo City Thunder (29-16)
5. Dallas Mavericks (29-15)
6. Denver Nuggets (27-18)
7. Utah Jazz (27-19)
8. Portland Trail Blazers (25-21)
9. Memphis Grizzlies (22-24)
10. Houston Rockets (22-25)
11. Phoenix Suns (20-24)
12. Golden State Warriors (19-26)
13. Los Angeles Clippers (17-28)
14. Sacramento Kings (10-33)
15. Minnesota Timberwolves (10-35)

Obviously it's still early in the season, and things are going to change before the playoffs begin.  In fact, just after I started this post, the Knicks beat the Heat, allowing the Bulls to jump up to the number 2 spot in the Eastern Conference.  The thing that I think is pretty clear by looking at the two conferences is just how tough the Western Conference is.  Sure, the Eastern Conference has four very good teams (maybe all four of those teams are elite) in the NBA, but overall, the Western Conference is much tougher. 

For this post, I decided to go through the list of teams I think could be championship contenders this season, and predict how the rest of their seasons might go.  We'll start in the Eastern Conference.

East:
1. Boston Celtics: This has to be the team to beat in the East.  Almost everybody, including myself, had given the conference to the Miami Heat, but after watching them play the first half of the season, it's clear that they have issues that aren't going to be solved easily, if at all before the end of the season.  The Celtics, however, only have one major issue to deal with, and that is injuries.  Garnett, Shaq, Perkins, Jermaine O'Neal, Rondo, and Delonte West have all missed time with injuries this season.  They were still able to post the best record in the East over that span, and now that they are all healthy, they will be scary the rest of the way.  They have 3 Hall of Famers in their starting line up, the best pure shooter in the game today in Ray Allen, one of the best players in the clutch in Paul Pierce, and the deepest bench in the league by far.  The rarely lose at home, and they should be playing at home throughout the Eastern Conference Playoffs.  Prediction: 62-20, and a trip back to the NBA Finals.

2. Miami Heat: The Heat have too much talent not to be considered a title contender this year.  Wade and James are the obvious go to guys come playoff time, but they do have some other players on their team that can contribute.  James Jones has proven to be an asset from behind the three point line, as has Mike Miller.  The problem with the Heat is that they are a finesse team.  They like to play "pretty" basketball, running the floor off of turnovers, and scoring alot in the fastbreak.  Teams in the playoffs won't allow that.  Playoff teams don't turn the ball over nearly as much, and they play tough, physical defense.  I know the Heat can't play that style, especially not with Chris Bosh as the big man.  Bosh is one of the softest players in the league, and he proved as much with his comments following the Heat's  loss to the Bulls, in which he injured his ankle.  Prediction: 55-27, and a loss in the Conference Semi-Finals.

3. Chicago Bulls: The Bulls are my favorite team, and I love how they have been playing the first half of the season.  They have only played 9 full games with a healthy roster (Boozer and Noah have each missed significant time), and not only have they weathered the storm, they've thrived in it.  They went 9-6 without Boozer to start the season, and are 15-6 since Noah went out with an injury.  Derrick Rose has emerged as a star in the NBA, and that seems to be one of the characteristics for teams to make a deep playoff run.  The thing the Bulls lack though is winning playoff experience.  I think this team is built for long term success, and may be a solid shooting guard away from actually competing for a championship.  Prediction: 54-28, and most likely a loss in the Conference Semi Finals, although I want to say they'll play the Celtics in the Eastern Finals.  That would be a great series.

4. Orlando Magic: I don't like the Magic, and I hated the trade they made earlier this season because of Gilbert Arenas.  However, the trade has worked out pretty well so far.  Dwight Howard is the best center in the NBA, and it's not even close.  His offense is much improved, and his defense is just as good as it has been the past 2 seasons, when he has won the defensive player of the year award.  The Magic can spread the floor, and they are averaging a league best 11 made three pointers per game since the trade.  One player to watch on this team: Ryan Anderson.  The Magic traded away Rashard Lewis, and have improved with Ryan Anderson.  He can stretch the floor just as well, and plays decent enough defense, a foreign concept to Lewis.  Prediction: 58-24, and a loss in the Conference Finals to the Celtics.

None of the other teams in the East really have a chance.  The Hawks and the Knicks are the only other teams with winning records, but I can't see them doing much in the playoffs, depending on who they'll play in the first round.  The Knicks just want to get in, and they'll take their chances next year when they are likely to sign Carmelo Anthony.

Western Conference:
1. San Antonio Spurs: The Spurs are playing the best team basketball in the league, and that includes the Boston Celtics.  The Spurs are just as old as the Celtics, and in much the same way, they depend on evenly spread scoring contributions, and solid team defense.  Ginobli, Parker and Duncan are still playing well, although Duncan is on the downhill portion of his career.  The window is closing for the Spurs, but I like them in the West this year.  Prediction: 65-17, and a trip to the NBA Finals to take on the Celtics.

2. Los Angeles Lakers: L.A. has to be considered a major contender to get back to the Finals this season.  They haven't played well, and haven't come close to playing their best basketball, yet they are 20 games over .500, and are second in the conference.  Kobe is starting to show his age, but is still one of the best scoring players in the league.  It wouldn't shock me to see the Lakers back in the Finals, but I can't stand them, so I won't pick them.  Prediction: 60-22, and a loss in the Conference Finals in 7 games.

3. Oklahoma City Thunder: The Thunder will be the team to beat in the West in the next 2 seasons.  Durant and Westbrook are the best scoring pair in the league, and the rest of the team fits around them extremely well.  They are a young, athletic team, and with some winning experience in the playoffs I can see them taking off in years to come.  I like them in the long run, but not for this season.  Prediction: 54-28, losing in the Conference Semi Finals to the Lakers.  I would love to see them get passed this point, but don't think it happens this year.  Watch out for alot of Thunder/Heat or Thunder/Bulls Finals in the next few years though. 

I think those are the only realistic contenders this season.  I'll admit that the Bulls might be a stretch this season, but they are playing extremely well to this point in the season, and being second in the conference after tonight, you have to throw them in the mix.  It should be fun to see how the rest of the season plays out going into the Playoffs.

Wednesday, January 19, 2011

Let's Make a Deal!

There has been alot of trade speculation surrounding the Chicago Bulls since the beginning of the season.  They have been loosely linked to Carmelo Anthony, who seems destined to be playing in a new jersey by the end of February.  There have also been a plethora of other shooters that have been mentioned as possible names that could be moved by the trading deadline.  The Bulls are an improving team, and should be a lock to at least move passed the first round of the playoffs this season.  If they want to actually contend, they need to find somebody who can shoot well from the perimeter.  So, with that in mind, I decided to take a look at some of the players they currently have on their roster, and possible players they could add.

Untradeable:
Derrick Rose: Nobody in their right mind would trade Rose to another team this early in his career.  He is a legit MVP candidate this season, and will be the starting point guard at the all star game this season.  He will only get better, and will be the face of the franchise for many seasons.

Joakim Noah: The Bulls just recently locked Noah up with a 5 year deal.  Besides that, he is a top 5 rebounder, the second best defensive center in the conference, and his offense has improved alot (it will continue to get better as well). 

Carlos Boozer: The only real scoring option the Bulls have in the post.  Boozer is a double-double machine, and a legit 20-10 guy.  Those are tough to find, and when you get one, you don't trade him.

Good Trade Candidates:
Luol Deng: Deng would look very good to other teams for a trade if he didn't have such a huge contract.  He puts up decent numbers (18 points, 6 rebounds per game), but those stats aren't worth the money he makes, which is right around 11 million dollars per season, for the next 2 seasons.

Kyle Korver: I like Korver, especially in the role he plays for the Bulls.  He is a three point specialist, and is the only real sharp shooter the Bulls have on their roster.  However, if the Bulls are going to acquire a good perimeter shooter, they will likely have to give up a good shooter in the deal, and Korver would likely be the guy.

Ronnie Brewer: I almost put Brewer on the untradeable list, because Brewer is the type of player winning teams have.  He comes off the bench, plays spectacular defense, chips in key buckets, and is a great team player.  Championship teams have those kinds of players come off their bench.  Other teams know that too, and may want Ronnie Brewer if they are to give up a quality shooter.

Taj Gibson: Taj has played unbelievable basketball lately, especially on the defensive end.  He has had at least 5 blocks in 3 of the last 5 games, and continues to improve his mid-range jumpshot, along with his post game.  I really like him coming off the Bulls' bench, because he would be starting on alot of teams in the league, which gives the Bulls much better depth in the backcourt when they are healthy.  Teams around the league especially like Gibson's talent, and he may be a focal point of any deal the Bulls try to make.

CJ Watson: Watson is the only other player the Bulls have that can run the point, although he is more of a combo guard.  He can score pretty well too, which is why some teams might request Watson be part of a trade if the Bulls want a quality shooting guard.

Others:
James Johnson: Some teams may take a flier on Johnson, as he has raw talent, but has not developed like a first round pick should.  He doesn't get enough minutes to develop, but he really doesn't deserve the minutes either.

Omer Asik: The Bulls wouldn't trade him anyway, and even though other teams around the league might like this guy, he is also pretty raw.  He is a defensive machine, and can rebound very well.  He also makes alot of hustle plays, which players like Chris Bosh know nothing about.  I think the Bulls want to develop Omer's game over the next couple of seasons, and see if they can hang on to him for a great option to replace Noah off the bench.

Keith Bogans: At this point Bogans continues to start, but he only plays 12-14 minutes per game, and doesn't really contribute much offensively. 

Kurt Thomas: Thomas has played extremely well in Noah's absence, and the Bulls should be grateful for the job he has done.  I don't think many teams would want him because of his age (38), but he does have an expiring contract, so who knows.  Still, I think he stays with the Bulls to finish the season.

Players the Bulls could trade for:

1. Carmelo Anthony: It has been widely reported that Anthony, who is one of the best scorers in the league, only wants to play for the Knicks.  If I'm the Bulls' GM, I say let him.  Denver is asking way too much in any trade, and earlier this year, when the Bulls asked what it would take to land Anthony, the Nuggets said they would need Joakim Noah, Luol Deng, and 2 first round picks.  The Bulls answered by giving Noah a massive contract extension.  Sounds like a big middle finger to the Nuggets to me. 

2. J.R. Smith: Smith is the starting shooting guard for the Denver Nuggets, and plays alongside Carmelo Anthony.  He can shoot the ball lights out from distance, but tends to play out of control.  He is also wildly inconsistent.  He'll score 25 one night, and only score 6 the next night.  The Bulls need a consistent shooting guard who can start for them, and I don't know that J.R. Smith is it.  Plus, the Bulls had J.R. Smith on their roster a couple of years ago, and they traded him before he ever played a game.  I think they knew back then that they didn't want him.  Why would they now?

3. O.J. Mayo: Mayo is a player I wouldn't mind having actually.  He comes off the bench for the Memphis Grizzlies, but that is a gross misuse of a talented player.  Mayo would be averaging 20 points per game with alot of different teams in the NBA.  He can shoot well from the perimeter, and has the ability to create his own shot.  I don't know that he would be the best fit in Chicago, but he is a talented player that I am sure the Bulls are looking at.

4. Andre Iguodala: Iguodala is the most athletic player in this group.  He is the starting shooting guard for the 76ers, and is probably the best defender out of this group.  However, he is more of a slashing guard, who likes to get to the rim.  There is nothing wrong with that at all, but the Bulls need a guy who can spot up and shoot from the perimeter with great consistency, and Iguodala just isn't that type of player.

In my opinion, I don't think the Bulls need to make a trade.  They have only had their full complement of players for 9 games this season.  Boozer has missed 17 games with injuries, and Noah has been out since mid-December, and isn't expected back until late February.  When Noah and Boozer were both in the lineup, the Bulls were 7-2, and were winning games by double digits.  Derrick Rose is quickly becoming one of the best players in the NBA, and the last thing the Bulls need to do is bring in a player who is going to take the ball out of his hands.  The bench is deep now, and the Bulls should do everything they can to maintain the depth they have.  They need to do this if they hope to compete with the Celtics in the next couple of seasons.  I think the Bulls should look big picture.  They have alot of young players on their team right now, and they will need time to learn how to win playoff games.  Let this team take their lumps now.  Use your draft picks well, grab a couple of good shooters, and sign a decent free agent if one comes available.  But don't trade away good pieces of a good, young, improving team that is just starting to build good chemistry. 

Saturday, January 15, 2011

Bull defeat the Heat to win their second straight!

The Chicago Bulls and Miami Heat game tonight was a fantastic game to watch, especially for us Bulls fans.  I know alot of people will say that the Bulls got lucky in this game, because the Heat played their second straight game without arguably the league's best player, LeBron James.  LeBron was out with a sprained ankle, and the Bulls took advantage, defeating the Heat in a closely contested, 99-96 basketball game. 

The fun part about this game, for me, was that it was kind of like games were when I was a kid.  I saw so many games where Michael Jordan would go at it with whoever the best player on the other team was (Dominique, Reggie, Ewing, Barkley, Bird, Magic, Drexler).  This game was exactly like that with Wade and Rose.  Rose would hit a gigantic shot at one end, only to be matched by Wade the next possession.  Rose ended the night with 34 points, 4 rebounds, 8 assists and 3 blocks.  Wade ended up with 33 points, 6 rebounds and 5 blocks.  Great performances by what should be your starting backcourt for the Eastern Conference All-Stars.

The game was full of big runs by both teams.  The Bulls raced out to a 14 pont lead in the second quarter, only to have the Heat go on a 19 point run, and take a 5 point lead at halftime.  The Heat were unconscious from the three point line in the second quarter.  Miller, Eddie House and Dwyane Wade each hit multiple three pointers in the second quarter, and it looked like the Bulls were going to have their hands full in the second half.

Then Rose joined the three point party, hitting a pair of threes during a huge Bulls' run in the third quarter.  Chris Bosh then caught fire, and even he knocked down a three point shot to bring the Heat closer.  I think the turning point in the game was probably when Bosh left the game with a sprained ankle.  He had 17 points, and had to take 18 shots to get them, but he was playing very well, and carrying the load offensively for Miami in the third quarter when he went out. 

Overall, this was a great win for the Bulls.  Korver hit a huge three pointer with under 30 seconds left to give the Bulls a 2 point lead, which will hopefully give him some confidence.  He has been struggling with his shot for the last couple of weeks, so it would be nice to see him get on a nice roll here.  The Bulls improved their record to 27-13, and are now only 2 games back of the Miami Heat for the second seed in the Eastern Conference. 

The one thing that I disliked about this game was that LeBron James didn't play.  I really wanted to see how the Bulls would have played against a healthy Heat team, especially since the Bulls are playing without their best defensive player and rebounder (Joakim Noah).  I personally think that the Bulls match up very well against a healthy Miami team.  There is no answer for Wade and James, at least for their offense.  However, the Heat are a finesse team.  They like to get steals, and run the floor in transition for easy buckets.  In the half court they like to isolate, drive and kick out for open three point shots.  They have no inside presence, and nobody that can score in the post, not even Chris Bosh, who should be able to play post up basketball, but can't.  The Bulls have Boozer, who is a fantastic post up player (at least on the offensive end), and Joakim Noah, who defends the post extremely well, and also plays off the post very well on the offensive end.  Plus, the Bulls have somebody who the Heat have no answer for either in Derrick Rose.  While having LeBron James definitely would have made a difference in the game tonight, I don't think it necessarily would have guaranteed the Heat a win.  I am really looking forward to the next matchup between these teams.  Let's hope everybody is healthy by then, and we can see what each of these teams is capable of.

Sunday, January 9, 2011

Good Bounce Back Game for the Bulls!

The Chicago Bulls had an up and down week.  It started out very strong, with a 110-90 win at home over the lowly Toronto Raptors.  They got their starters alot of rest in the late stages of that game in preparation for a 2 game roadtrip against two of the weaker teams in the Eastern Conference, the New Jersey Nets and the Philadelphia 76ers.

Those are two teams the Bulls should beat by double digits every time out.  However, the Bulls turned in by far their worst performances since Carlos Boozer's return against Orlando early in December.  Low energy offense and terrible rotations on defense led the Bulls to consecutive road losses against teams at the bottom of the conference standings.  Not only that, the Bulls had a small problem at the end of the Nets game, with Carlos Boozer being upset over sitting on the bench for the final 14 minutes of the game. 

Coming off of back-to-back road losses, and playing the second night of a back-to-back at home against the first place Celtics didn't bode well for the Bulls, who were struggling really for the first time this season.  I was not really expecting the Bulls to play particularly well against the Celtics, and even worse, I had tickets to the game, so I was ready to witness my favorite NBA team lose for the third consecutive night.

Instead, the Bulls played inspired basketball for almost the entire game.  Fueled by the fact that they had already lost twice to Boston this season, the Bulls really got after the Celtics on the defensive end of the court.  In fact, three times in the game last night the Bulls forced 24 second shot clock violations in which the Celtics didn't even get the shot off.  There was one other time when they forced another such violation when the shot didn't hit the rim.  They challenged shots almost every time down the floor, and outrebounded the Celtics by a wide margin.

On the offensive end the Bulls received large contributions from their two star players.  Carlos Boozer finished with 22 points and 10 rebounds.  Boozer was hot and cold all night.  For instance, he scored 2 points and had a few turnovers in the first quarter, only to score 11 points and have several key rebounds in the second quarter.  Then in the third quarter Boozer turned the ball over and missed easy shots. In the fourth quarter, he made 2 critical baskets to keep the Bulls ahead by a safe margin in the middle of the quarter.  I wouldn't say this was his best game, but he played outstanding in key stretches, which allowed the Bulls to sustain a good offensive attack.

Derrick Rose had a fantastic game.  He finished with 36 points, 5 rebounds.  He only had 2 assists, but that was clearly not his fault.  He tried to get his teammates involved early in the game, but nobody could hit a shot early on, so he decided to take over the game.  It was great to see him get to the foul line.  He shot 19 free throws and made 15 in last night's game.  Hopefully that is a sign of things to come.  He needs to get to the line more often in order to slow the game down, end opposing team scoring runs, and to improve his overall game.  I have always enjoyed watching Rose play, but seeing him live was awesome.  He took over the game in the first quarter, and in the fourth quarter he made three huge jumpers, including a high arching shot over Shaq that basically sealed the win.

The Bulls ended last night's game with a 90-79 victory over a great Boston team.  Both teams were dealing with injuries (Boston was without Garnett, Perkins and Delonte West, while the Bulls were missing Noah).  However, when both teams are healthy, their contests should be just as competitive.  The Bulls improved to 24-12 with the win, and continue to have the most comfortable division lead in the NBA (a 9 game lead over the Pacers).  The Bulls have a tough week coming up.  They play tomorrow night at home against the Pistons, who have played the Bulls very tough so far this season.  They have road games against the Bobcats and Pacers later in the week before returning home on Saturday to face the Miami Heat.  I am really excited to see that game.  It'll be interesting to see how the Bulls stack up against Miami's "Big Three".  

Saturday, January 1, 2011

Bulls continue to roll!

The Chicago Bulls won their 4th straight game, and 22nd overall on the season as they defeated the Cleveland Cavaliers 100-91 at home earlier this evening.  It was their third straight home game, all against weaker Eastern Conference opponents.  Their previous two games were victories against the Milwaukee Bucks (90-77), and the New Jersey Nets (90-81).  The wins haven't been pretty by any means, especially offensively.  In two out of those three games the Bulls shot less than 40% from the field.  However, the Bulls have made up for any offensive shortcomings with much improved defense.

Tonight's game really didn't start or end well for the Bulls, even though they did get the victory.  The Bulls came out flat, which isn't all that surprising since they played yesterday as well.  They let the Cavs shoot 56% from the floor, and score 61 points in the first half.  The Bulls themselves scored 53 in the first half, and normally that would be good enough for a double digit halftime lead, but the Cavs came ready to play, and shot the ball extremely well in the first two quarters.  Then came the third quarter.

The Bulls outscored the Cavs 33-9 in the third quarter.  The Cavs settled for every outside shot they could get, and the Bulls challenged them on the perimeter to force several missed shots.  Rose dominated the quarter as well, scoring 12 points and dishing out several assists in the pick and roll game as well.  Rose and Boozer are starting to look like a great pick and roll tandem, possibly one of the best in the league.  Boozer put up 20 points and 11 rebounds, while Rose added 28 points and 11 assists.  Rose is starting to put up double figure assists regularly, and hopefully he'll start getting more foul calls when he drives to the rim.  The officials can't seem to officiate him correctly.  He gets to the rim so easily, and there is contact on a good percentage of plays, yet Rose still only averages about 6 foul shots per game.  That number should be much higher.

The Bulls ran their record to 22-10, which is the highest over .500 that I can remember them being since 2005, when they went 49-33.  They still have a relatively weak schedule for the next couple of weeks, although they do have games coming up against the Celtics and Heat.  It'll be interesting to see how the Bulls play against those two teams, and the Heat in particular.  Hopefully the Bulls can keep racking up wins against the weaker teams until Joakim Noah gets back.  Go Bulls!