We are just over halfway through the NBA regular season, and the playoff picture in both conferences has pretty much taken form, especially in the top half of each conference. While the playoff seeds are still very much up for grabs, the top teams in each conference have clearly separated themselves.
The conference standings as they are right now are as follows:
Eastern Conference:
1. Boston Celtics (34-10)
2. Miami Heat (31-13)
3. Chicago Bulls (31-14)
4. Orlando Magic (30-16)
5. Atlanta Hawks (29-17)
6. New York Knicks (23-21)
7. Philadelphia 76ers (20-25)
8. Charlotte Bobcats (19-25)
9.Milwaukee Bucks (17-26)
10. Indiana Pacers (16-26)
11. Detroit Pistons(17-29)
12. New Jersey Nets (14-32)
13. Washington Wizards (13-31)
14. Toronto Raptors (13-33)
15. Cleveland Cavaliers (8-37)
Western Conference:
1. San Antonio Spurs (39-7)
2. Los Angeles Lakers (33-13)
3. New Orleans Hornets (31-16)
4. Oklahomo City Thunder (29-16)
5. Dallas Mavericks (29-15)
6. Denver Nuggets (27-18)
7. Utah Jazz (27-19)
8. Portland Trail Blazers (25-21)
9. Memphis Grizzlies (22-24)
10. Houston Rockets (22-25)
11. Phoenix Suns (20-24)
12. Golden State Warriors (19-26)
13. Los Angeles Clippers (17-28)
14. Sacramento Kings (10-33)
15. Minnesota Timberwolves (10-35)
Obviously it's still early in the season, and things are going to change before the playoffs begin. In fact, just after I started this post, the Knicks beat the Heat, allowing the Bulls to jump up to the number 2 spot in the Eastern Conference. The thing that I think is pretty clear by looking at the two conferences is just how tough the Western Conference is. Sure, the Eastern Conference has four very good teams (maybe all four of those teams are elite) in the NBA, but overall, the Western Conference is much tougher.
For this post, I decided to go through the list of teams I think could be championship contenders this season, and predict how the rest of their seasons might go. We'll start in the Eastern Conference.
East:
1. Boston Celtics: This has to be the team to beat in the East. Almost everybody, including myself, had given the conference to the Miami Heat, but after watching them play the first half of the season, it's clear that they have issues that aren't going to be solved easily, if at all before the end of the season. The Celtics, however, only have one major issue to deal with, and that is injuries. Garnett, Shaq, Perkins, Jermaine O'Neal, Rondo, and Delonte West have all missed time with injuries this season. They were still able to post the best record in the East over that span, and now that they are all healthy, they will be scary the rest of the way. They have 3 Hall of Famers in their starting line up, the best pure shooter in the game today in Ray Allen, one of the best players in the clutch in Paul Pierce, and the deepest bench in the league by far. The rarely lose at home, and they should be playing at home throughout the Eastern Conference Playoffs. Prediction: 62-20, and a trip back to the NBA Finals.
2. Miami Heat: The Heat have too much talent not to be considered a title contender this year. Wade and James are the obvious go to guys come playoff time, but they do have some other players on their team that can contribute. James Jones has proven to be an asset from behind the three point line, as has Mike Miller. The problem with the Heat is that they are a finesse team. They like to play "pretty" basketball, running the floor off of turnovers, and scoring alot in the fastbreak. Teams in the playoffs won't allow that. Playoff teams don't turn the ball over nearly as much, and they play tough, physical defense. I know the Heat can't play that style, especially not with Chris Bosh as the big man. Bosh is one of the softest players in the league, and he proved as much with his comments following the Heat's loss to the Bulls, in which he injured his ankle. Prediction: 55-27, and a loss in the Conference Semi-Finals.
3. Chicago Bulls: The Bulls are my favorite team, and I love how they have been playing the first half of the season. They have only played 9 full games with a healthy roster (Boozer and Noah have each missed significant time), and not only have they weathered the storm, they've thrived in it. They went 9-6 without Boozer to start the season, and are 15-6 since Noah went out with an injury. Derrick Rose has emerged as a star in the NBA, and that seems to be one of the characteristics for teams to make a deep playoff run. The thing the Bulls lack though is winning playoff experience. I think this team is built for long term success, and may be a solid shooting guard away from actually competing for a championship. Prediction: 54-28, and most likely a loss in the Conference Semi Finals, although I want to say they'll play the Celtics in the Eastern Finals. That would be a great series.
4. Orlando Magic: I don't like the Magic, and I hated the trade they made earlier this season because of Gilbert Arenas. However, the trade has worked out pretty well so far. Dwight Howard is the best center in the NBA, and it's not even close. His offense is much improved, and his defense is just as good as it has been the past 2 seasons, when he has won the defensive player of the year award. The Magic can spread the floor, and they are averaging a league best 11 made three pointers per game since the trade. One player to watch on this team: Ryan Anderson. The Magic traded away Rashard Lewis, and have improved with Ryan Anderson. He can stretch the floor just as well, and plays decent enough defense, a foreign concept to Lewis. Prediction: 58-24, and a loss in the Conference Finals to the Celtics.
None of the other teams in the East really have a chance. The Hawks and the Knicks are the only other teams with winning records, but I can't see them doing much in the playoffs, depending on who they'll play in the first round. The Knicks just want to get in, and they'll take their chances next year when they are likely to sign Carmelo Anthony.
Western Conference:
1. San Antonio Spurs: The Spurs are playing the best team basketball in the league, and that includes the Boston Celtics. The Spurs are just as old as the Celtics, and in much the same way, they depend on evenly spread scoring contributions, and solid team defense. Ginobli, Parker and Duncan are still playing well, although Duncan is on the downhill portion of his career. The window is closing for the Spurs, but I like them in the West this year. Prediction: 65-17, and a trip to the NBA Finals to take on the Celtics.
2. Los Angeles Lakers: L.A. has to be considered a major contender to get back to the Finals this season. They haven't played well, and haven't come close to playing their best basketball, yet they are 20 games over .500, and are second in the conference. Kobe is starting to show his age, but is still one of the best scoring players in the league. It wouldn't shock me to see the Lakers back in the Finals, but I can't stand them, so I won't pick them. Prediction: 60-22, and a loss in the Conference Finals in 7 games.
3. Oklahoma City Thunder: The Thunder will be the team to beat in the West in the next 2 seasons. Durant and Westbrook are the best scoring pair in the league, and the rest of the team fits around them extremely well. They are a young, athletic team, and with some winning experience in the playoffs I can see them taking off in years to come. I like them in the long run, but not for this season. Prediction: 54-28, losing in the Conference Semi Finals to the Lakers. I would love to see them get passed this point, but don't think it happens this year. Watch out for alot of Thunder/Heat or Thunder/Bulls Finals in the next few years though.
I think those are the only realistic contenders this season. I'll admit that the Bulls might be a stretch this season, but they are playing extremely well to this point in the season, and being second in the conference after tonight, you have to throw them in the mix. It should be fun to see how the rest of the season plays out going into the Playoffs.
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