I can't stand thinking about baseball anymore. The Cubs are absolutely brutal. The whole organization, from ownership to the players and managers, should be utterly embarrassed. So instead of writing about the Cubs, today I will shift to a different sport altogether.
I was one of the many idiots who got sucked into basketball free agency in July. This was easily the most significant free agent period in the history of the NBA. Lots of player movement throughout the league, and a dramatic shift in power from the Western Conference to the Eastern Conference.
The Chicago Bulls had a weird season last year. They seemed to really put it together a couple of times, and then really lose it a couple of times as well. The Bulls did make the playoffs, losing to the top seeded Cavs in the first round, a 5 game series in which they were competetive, but not that close to winning most of the games. They struck out on the big three (LeBron, Wade, Bosh) in free agency, but they made several significant upgrades that lead me to believe the Bulls will be playing well beyond the first round of the playoffs.
I'll start the Bulls preview by going over their current roster, then maybe make some predictions later.
Starting Roster:
PG- Derrick Rose: Easily the best player on the Bulls. A 20 ppg scorer last year, who can drive and kick with the best of them. He averaged 6 apg as well, but that number would have been much higher if any of his teammates could shoot consistently from the outside. The hiring of Tom Thibodeau as head coach should dramatically strengthen his defense and rebounding. I have also heard rumblings that he has added a more consistent 3-point shot to his game. If that is true, look for Derrick Rose to become the best scoring point guard in the league. I would not be surprised if D-Rose was the starting point guard for the East All-Stars this year.
SG- Ronnie Brewer: I would expect Brewer to start most of the season due to his defensive prowess. Don't get me wrong, he will not stop LeBron or Wade, but he will make the top shooting guards in the league work hard for their points. He isn't a great shooting threat, but he can slash, and is a decent rebounder on the offensive glass. I thought he was a great addition because Thibodeau is going to preach team defense (just like he did in Boston), and Ronnie Brewer should fit that scheme quite well. I could see him averaging a line close to 12 ppg/3-4 apg/6-7 rpg/1 steal. If he does anything close to that, it would be a great season.
SF- Luol Deng: Luol has never quite reached the All-Star potential many NBA insiders predicted he would reach several years ago, but that doesn't mean he is a bad player. Anyone who averages 17 ppg/7 rpg is a solid NBA starter. There are some deficiencies in his game, namely his defense. He defends mostly against perimeter players, but does find himself in the post at time during a game, and he doesn't defend either particularly well. Thibodeau should help him improve somewhat in this area, but I wouldn't look for him to be making All Defense anytime soon. He also needs to improve his long distance shooting percentage. That being said, he is still a good slasher, can finish at the rim (with contact too), and is a decent mid-range shooter. Look for similar numbers to last season from Deng this year (17/7).
PF- Carlos Boozer: Major upgrade at Power Forward for the Chicago Bulls. Chris Bosh was the major prize at the PF spot by most people's standards this off-season, but I would put Boozer right up there with him, and ahead of Amare Stoudemire. The big issue with Boozer is his health. He seems to be 100% healthy right now, and if the Bulls can get 70-75 or more games out of him this season it would be a huge help. Boozer is a 20/10 guy, and those are few and far between in the NBA. He gives the Bulls a low-post scoring option who can play pick and roll, or pick and pop basketball, due to his outstanding mid-range jumper. He also has a very high field goal percentage for his career, making him an efficient scorer. Rose and Boozer should become a very formiddable scoring duo in the Eastern Conference this season. I would expect a 20/10 average from Boozer, or very close.
C- Joakim Noah: Noah had a bust out season last year, and in my eyes proved to be the most important player on the Bulls roster. He went down with the plantar fascitis (I think that's how it is spelled) injury, and missed 10 games in the later part of the season. The Bulls went 0-10, and fell out of the playoffs. Then he came back, the Bulls made a run, and snuck into the eighth seed, beating out the Raptors in the final weekend of the season. Say what you will about his personality (and hair), he is the most important player on the Bulls roster. He hustles, he rebounds, he scores on second chances, he dives for loose balls, he runs the floor on defense and the fast break, and he gets under the skin of his opponents. Not only that, but much like Derrick Rose, he elevates his game in the playoffs. He has the ugliest jump shot I've seen since Bill Cartwright, but somehow he seems to make a couple every game. I would expect his offense to improve, while his rebounding and defense remain consistent and stellar. Don't be surprised if Noah averages 15/11 (or close), and maybe between 1-2 blocks per game as well. I see All-Star caliber seasons in Noah's future.
Bench:
SG/SF: Kyle Korver: The Bulls wanted a three point threat, so they went out and signed the best 3-point shooter in the league last year (53.6%). That is what Korver will do, he shoots well and spreads the defense out. When Korver gets into the game, all he will have to do is knock down a couple of shots. Watch D-Rose take the game over when Korver is in with him. He is a great drive and kick option for Rose.
PG: C.J. Watson: The Bulls picked up Watson from the Golden State Warriors. He will serve as a back for Rose primarily, but could also play SG, although he would be undersized, and bigger guards would take advantage of that. He averaged 10 ppg coming off the bench for the Warriors last year, and he can flat out shoot the 3, which gives the team another option to spread the floor. He can score too. He had a 40 point game last year against the Knicks when he had the chance to start. Solid trade made by the Bulls.
PF: Taj Gibson: Gibson had a very solid rookie season as the Bulls starting PF. He will no longer start with Boozer in the fold, but will be a valuable member off the bench for the Bulls. He rebounds, shoots the ball well from mid-range, and plays excellent defense for someone who is a little undersized at his position. Look for him to spell both Boozer and Noah at times, and probably play 18-22 minutes per game off the bench.
C: Kurt Thomas: A nice veteran pick up for the Bulls. He won't play that much (12th man minutes), but will tutor Noah and Gibson about how to play consistently at the NBA level. He will get some minutes when the bigs are in foul trouble, or when the Bulls have big leads late in the game.
C: Omer Asik: This is a young Turkish player who scouts for the Bulls were very high on. He's 7'2" tall, and is a big body in the post. He can score some, but all accounts say that the Bulls were most impressed by his defensive ability. If he can rebound well and defend well, he should get solid playing time against Orlando, Boston, Los Angeles, and any other team with depth in the front court.
SG: Keith Bogans: Bogans was another veteran pick up. He'll likely see the same amount of time that Thomas will, but is another solid option should Deng, Brewer and Korver get in foul trouble. He can shoot the three well, and plays sound team defense, both high on the Bulls priority list going into the summer.
SF: James Johnson: Don't be surprised if Johnson ends up in the D-League. He has raw talent, but showed last season that he isn't ready. He needs to hone his skills, and learn how to appropriately transition to the NBA game. He won't be a major factor this year.
The Bulls are one of the deepest teams in the league. Their depth in the backcourt is solid, but they've vastly improved up front. The only team that should compete with the Bulls in the Central Division this year is Milwaukee, but I can't see the Bucks being able to beat the Bulls.
Predictions:
The Bulls will win at least 50 games. I went through the schedule recently, and just based on what I see on paper going into the season, I could see the Bulls winning anywhere from 50-59 games. If they won 59, I would be ecstatic. I don't think they will win 59, but at least 50 is likely, and 52-55 could happen. I will say at least a 50-32 record, if not better.
The Bulls will win one game vs. Miami. Everybody is going to be ready for the Heat this year. Very few teams will be able to compete with the Heat, but the Bulls are one of them. They play Miami at the United Center twice (once in January and once in February). They will win one of those home games. Expect Derrick Rose to have a huge scoring game in the win, and Joakim Noah to get in Bosh's and LeBron's heads.
The Bulls will win their division. I can't see Milwaukee winning 50 games, even with their upgraded roster. Cleveland will be competetive, but won't make the playoffs. Indiana is improved with the additions of Collison and Posey, but they won't compete with the Bulls this year. Detroit sucks.
The Bulls will get to the second round, at least. Whether or not they get past the second round depends on who they face. If the Bulls face the Magic or Celtics, they have a great shot to get to the Conference Finals. If they face the Heat, they will lose in a competetive series (6 or 7 games). I would personally love to see a Bulls/Celtics rematch from 2008. That was a great series, and with both teams making upgrades, it would be an interesting series again.
I could make some other predictions about the season, but I think I'll stop there. I love basketball. It is my favorite sport to talk strategy. It was fun writing about something other than shitty baseball. As always, leave your thoughts and comments if you'd like. Enjoy!
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